Post by Stefan Pasti on May 26, 2012 17:51:23 GMT -5
Diminishing Returns Associated With Mega-Cities
Although most of the expert practitioners associated with planning, funding, and building the sustainable communities of the future still seem to believe that cities with a population over 1 million can be made into models of sustainability, this writer believes it is time to ask about “return on investment” and “diminishing returns” associated with mega-cities.
We are about to enter a time when many countries will have serious public debt. And, at the same time as there is a need for people in a significant number of countries to adjust to austerity measures associated with public debt, there is also a need for many people in a significant number of countries to reduce indiscriminate consumption as a response to the implications of global warming, peak oil, peak water, and depletion of other key resources (and to conserve resources for emergency assistance). There is an especially urgent need for an increase in human activity which decreases carbon emissions. It seems to this writer like there would be decreasing return on investment (“diminishing returns”) to the prospect of investing in human settlements with such complex infrastructures to maintain—which require extensive transport of food and other products, extensive transport and processing of waste; and where the prospects of reducing indiscrimant consumption, reducing carbon emissions, and “zero waste” are least likely to occur.
In an IPCR document titled “Calling ‘the better angels of our nature’: A Multi-Angle View of the Debt Crises”)(Jan. 2012, 398 pages) (at www.ipcri.net/A_Multi-Angle_View_of_the_Debt_Crises.pdf ) significant evidence is pointing towards a need for:
a) a significant increase of people who can find contentment and quality of life while consuming much less material goods and ecological services
b) a significant reversal of the trend toward urbanization, and a migration towards small cities and townships
c) a significant increase in initiatives working to redesign the human economy to emulate nature
Visualizing a Migration from Mega-Cities to Small Cities and Townships
So if there might be a significant reversal of the urbanization trend, and a significant migration from megacities to small cities and townships, what would such a migration look like? Here is one exploration of what such a migration might look like.
Given that there are now more than 400 cities with over 1 million people, how many small cities and townships of 50,000 would need to be created if there was a significant migration from megacities to small cities and townships?
Since there are approximately 19 cities with over 10 million people, and approximately 33 cities with between 5 million and 10 million people, the calculations must be an estimate. Thus, if all the 400 cities (above) had only 1 million people exactly, an estimate would be 8,000 townships of 50,000 (400 million divided by 50,000). If we add to the 400 million figure an additional 50 cities with 5 million (an effort to approximate the total number of people in cities with a population over 5 million), we arrive at 650 million divided by 50,000 = 13,000. 13,000 small cities and townships.
In circumstances of an urgent need to adjust to austerity measures associated with public debt—and reduce indiscriminate consumption as a response to the implications of global warming, peak oil, peak water, and depletion of other key resources (and to conserve resources for emergency assistance); and in circumstances which require reducing extensive transport of food and other products, reducing extensive transport and processing of waste, reducing indiscrimant consumption, reducing carbon emissions, and approximating “zero waste”—which model of human settlements are more likely to be sustainable: 52 megacities with populations of 5 million people or more… or 13,000 small cities and townships?
How Could Such a Migration Happen?
The following 7 point list (on The IPCR Initiative website homepage at www.ipcri.net ) outlines steps towards solution-oriented momentum which can be taken by communities in almost every variety of circumstances.
1) A central focus of The IPCR Initiative is its advocacy for a combination Community Visioning Initiatives, "Community Teaching and Learning Centers" with ongoing workshops, and "sister community" relationships as a way of generating an exponential increase in our collective capacity to overcome the challenges of our times.
2) Community Visioning Initiatives can be described as a series of community meetings designed to facilitate the process of brainstorming ideas, organizing the ideas into goals, prioritizing the goals, and identifying doable steps. One of the main goals of Community Visioning Initiatives is to maximize citizen participation in identifying challenges, and in solution-oriented activity.
3) The concept of “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (created by the “Teachers Without Borders” organization) (modified and expanded by the IPCR Initiative) is about creating many local community points of entry which function as information and resource centers, locations for workshops, and locations for the training of “teacher-leaders”.
4) Results from well thought out preliminary surveys (circulated to at least 150 key leaders from a significant variety of fields of activity in the community) can help residents appreciate the need for a Community Visioning Initiative, and for “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (CTLCs).
5) The job fairs which come at the end of the Community Visioning Initiative process provide opportunities for all key stakeholders in the community (businesses, organizations, institutions, government, etc) to demonstrate their interest in the welfare of the community—by offering and facilitating new employment opportunities… and thus assisting with a just transition to patterns of investment which in many ways represent solutions to prioritized challenges.
6) “Sister Community” relationships provide whole communities with ways of assisting with such a “just transition”. In addition, such community-to-community relationships can create service work capable of uniting diverse communities of people, and a variety of opportunities for person-to-person peacebuilding (as can be seen by the work of organizations such as “Sister Cities International”.)
7) This “constellation of initiatives” approach to maximizing citizen participation in solution-oriented activity also provides many opportunities for local newspapers to contribute very valuable community services (for example: making preliminary survey results accessible; highlighting inspirational role models and initiatives associated with the 117 related fields of activity; describing workshop activity in the “Community Teaching and Learning Centers”; reporting on the planning, implementation, evaluation, and follow up stages associated with Community Visioning Initiatives; etc).
The IPCR Initiative summarizes this approach in the “1000Communities2” Proposal (“1000CommunitiesSquared”) (first proposed in June, 2008)
The “1000Communities2” proposal advocates organizing and implementing Community Visioning Initiatives in 1000 communities (communities—or segments of rural areas, towns, or cities—with populations of 50,000 or less) around the world
1. which are time-intensive, lasting even as much as 1½ years (18 months), so as to give as much importance to developing a close-knit community as it does to
a) accumulating and integrating the knowledge and skill sets necessary for the highest percentage of people to act wisely in response to challenges identified as priority challenges
b) helping people to deliberately channel their time, energy, and money into the creation of “ways of earning a living” which are directly related to resolving high priority challenges
c) assisting with outreach, partnership formation, and development of service capacity for a significant number of already existing (or forming) organizations, businesses, institutions, and government agencies
d) helping to build a high level of consensus for specific action plans, which will help inspire additional support from people, businesses, organizations, institutions, and government agencies with significant
resources
2. which expand on the concept of “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (created by the “Teachers Without Borders” organization) so that such local community points of entry function as information clearinghouses, meeting locations, educational centers for ongoing workshops (on a broad range of topics related to the Community Visioning Process, and building the local knowledge base), practice sites for developing “teacher-leaders”, a location for an ongoing “informal” “Community Journal”, a location for listing employment opportunities—and so that such community centers provide a means of responding quickly (by changing the emphasis of workshop content) to new urgencies as they arise
3. and which suggest—as a way of emphasizing the need for an exponential increase in compassion for our fellow human beings—that communities (with the resources to do so) enter into “sister community” relationships with communities in other countries where there has been well documented calls for assistance with basic human needs.
How Could 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives be Funded?
This writer has estimated (roughly) that one Community Visioning Initiative (involving a community of 50,000 for 18 months time) would cost $3 million. One of the central proposals of The IPCR Initiative advocates for collaboration on carrying out 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives as a way of creating many positive multiplier effects and much solution-oriented momentum. If one Community Visioning Initiative would cost $3 million, 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives would cost $3 billion. $3 billion is only .2% of $1,531 billion (total military expenditures worldwide in one year).
This writer believes that a significant majority of people surveyed would say they support shifting .2% of public funds currently used for military preparedness and military interventions to carry out 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives. Why does he believe this? Because it is clear to him—and he believes it would be clear to most other people, if they were asked—that such a shift would be a transition from patterns of investment which in only limited ways represent solutions to the challenges discussed in this paper to patterns of investment which in many ways represent solutions to these challenges. It is also clear to this writer that such a shift in what people consider “valuable and important” would result in an exponential increase in opportunities to provide real assistance to fellow human beings. And it is clear that similar shifts from patterns of investment associated with greed, corruption, and overindulgence could be achieved so that time, energy, and money could be rechanneled towards more solution-oriented activity.
If many readers of this post were to be in agreement with this writer that the 10 difficult challenges (cited in another post in this section "A List of 10 Critical Challenges Ahead") were all critical challenges, and that all of us have important responsibilities associated with resolving these challenges in the months and years ahead—such shifts and transitions could be carried out. The IPCR Initiative is convinced that these shifts and transitions will eventually and inevitably happen. So The IPCR Initiative has been developing documents and resources which are relevant and practical for accomplishing those shifts and transitions.
Although most of the expert practitioners associated with planning, funding, and building the sustainable communities of the future still seem to believe that cities with a population over 1 million can be made into models of sustainability, this writer believes it is time to ask about “return on investment” and “diminishing returns” associated with mega-cities.
We are about to enter a time when many countries will have serious public debt. And, at the same time as there is a need for people in a significant number of countries to adjust to austerity measures associated with public debt, there is also a need for many people in a significant number of countries to reduce indiscriminate consumption as a response to the implications of global warming, peak oil, peak water, and depletion of other key resources (and to conserve resources for emergency assistance). There is an especially urgent need for an increase in human activity which decreases carbon emissions. It seems to this writer like there would be decreasing return on investment (“diminishing returns”) to the prospect of investing in human settlements with such complex infrastructures to maintain—which require extensive transport of food and other products, extensive transport and processing of waste; and where the prospects of reducing indiscrimant consumption, reducing carbon emissions, and “zero waste” are least likely to occur.
In an IPCR document titled “Calling ‘the better angels of our nature’: A Multi-Angle View of the Debt Crises”)(Jan. 2012, 398 pages) (at www.ipcri.net/A_Multi-Angle_View_of_the_Debt_Crises.pdf ) significant evidence is pointing towards a need for:
a) a significant increase of people who can find contentment and quality of life while consuming much less material goods and ecological services
b) a significant reversal of the trend toward urbanization, and a migration towards small cities and townships
c) a significant increase in initiatives working to redesign the human economy to emulate nature
Visualizing a Migration from Mega-Cities to Small Cities and Townships
So if there might be a significant reversal of the urbanization trend, and a significant migration from megacities to small cities and townships, what would such a migration look like? Here is one exploration of what such a migration might look like.
Given that there are now more than 400 cities with over 1 million people, how many small cities and townships of 50,000 would need to be created if there was a significant migration from megacities to small cities and townships?
Since there are approximately 19 cities with over 10 million people, and approximately 33 cities with between 5 million and 10 million people, the calculations must be an estimate. Thus, if all the 400 cities (above) had only 1 million people exactly, an estimate would be 8,000 townships of 50,000 (400 million divided by 50,000). If we add to the 400 million figure an additional 50 cities with 5 million (an effort to approximate the total number of people in cities with a population over 5 million), we arrive at 650 million divided by 50,000 = 13,000. 13,000 small cities and townships.
In circumstances of an urgent need to adjust to austerity measures associated with public debt—and reduce indiscriminate consumption as a response to the implications of global warming, peak oil, peak water, and depletion of other key resources (and to conserve resources for emergency assistance); and in circumstances which require reducing extensive transport of food and other products, reducing extensive transport and processing of waste, reducing indiscrimant consumption, reducing carbon emissions, and approximating “zero waste”—which model of human settlements are more likely to be sustainable: 52 megacities with populations of 5 million people or more… or 13,000 small cities and townships?
How Could Such a Migration Happen?
The following 7 point list (on The IPCR Initiative website homepage at www.ipcri.net ) outlines steps towards solution-oriented momentum which can be taken by communities in almost every variety of circumstances.
1) A central focus of The IPCR Initiative is its advocacy for a combination Community Visioning Initiatives, "Community Teaching and Learning Centers" with ongoing workshops, and "sister community" relationships as a way of generating an exponential increase in our collective capacity to overcome the challenges of our times.
2) Community Visioning Initiatives can be described as a series of community meetings designed to facilitate the process of brainstorming ideas, organizing the ideas into goals, prioritizing the goals, and identifying doable steps. One of the main goals of Community Visioning Initiatives is to maximize citizen participation in identifying challenges, and in solution-oriented activity.
3) The concept of “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (created by the “Teachers Without Borders” organization) (modified and expanded by the IPCR Initiative) is about creating many local community points of entry which function as information and resource centers, locations for workshops, and locations for the training of “teacher-leaders”.
4) Results from well thought out preliminary surveys (circulated to at least 150 key leaders from a significant variety of fields of activity in the community) can help residents appreciate the need for a Community Visioning Initiative, and for “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (CTLCs).
5) The job fairs which come at the end of the Community Visioning Initiative process provide opportunities for all key stakeholders in the community (businesses, organizations, institutions, government, etc) to demonstrate their interest in the welfare of the community—by offering and facilitating new employment opportunities… and thus assisting with a just transition to patterns of investment which in many ways represent solutions to prioritized challenges.
6) “Sister Community” relationships provide whole communities with ways of assisting with such a “just transition”. In addition, such community-to-community relationships can create service work capable of uniting diverse communities of people, and a variety of opportunities for person-to-person peacebuilding (as can be seen by the work of organizations such as “Sister Cities International”.)
7) This “constellation of initiatives” approach to maximizing citizen participation in solution-oriented activity also provides many opportunities for local newspapers to contribute very valuable community services (for example: making preliminary survey results accessible; highlighting inspirational role models and initiatives associated with the 117 related fields of activity; describing workshop activity in the “Community Teaching and Learning Centers”; reporting on the planning, implementation, evaluation, and follow up stages associated with Community Visioning Initiatives; etc).
The IPCR Initiative summarizes this approach in the “1000Communities2” Proposal (“1000CommunitiesSquared”) (first proposed in June, 2008)
The “1000Communities2” proposal advocates organizing and implementing Community Visioning Initiatives in 1000 communities (communities—or segments of rural areas, towns, or cities—with populations of 50,000 or less) around the world
1. which are time-intensive, lasting even as much as 1½ years (18 months), so as to give as much importance to developing a close-knit community as it does to
a) accumulating and integrating the knowledge and skill sets necessary for the highest percentage of people to act wisely in response to challenges identified as priority challenges
b) helping people to deliberately channel their time, energy, and money into the creation of “ways of earning a living” which are directly related to resolving high priority challenges
c) assisting with outreach, partnership formation, and development of service capacity for a significant number of already existing (or forming) organizations, businesses, institutions, and government agencies
d) helping to build a high level of consensus for specific action plans, which will help inspire additional support from people, businesses, organizations, institutions, and government agencies with significant
resources
2. which expand on the concept of “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (created by the “Teachers Without Borders” organization) so that such local community points of entry function as information clearinghouses, meeting locations, educational centers for ongoing workshops (on a broad range of topics related to the Community Visioning Process, and building the local knowledge base), practice sites for developing “teacher-leaders”, a location for an ongoing “informal” “Community Journal”, a location for listing employment opportunities—and so that such community centers provide a means of responding quickly (by changing the emphasis of workshop content) to new urgencies as they arise
3. and which suggest—as a way of emphasizing the need for an exponential increase in compassion for our fellow human beings—that communities (with the resources to do so) enter into “sister community” relationships with communities in other countries where there has been well documented calls for assistance with basic human needs.
How Could 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives be Funded?
This writer has estimated (roughly) that one Community Visioning Initiative (involving a community of 50,000 for 18 months time) would cost $3 million. One of the central proposals of The IPCR Initiative advocates for collaboration on carrying out 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives as a way of creating many positive multiplier effects and much solution-oriented momentum. If one Community Visioning Initiative would cost $3 million, 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives would cost $3 billion. $3 billion is only .2% of $1,531 billion (total military expenditures worldwide in one year).
This writer believes that a significant majority of people surveyed would say they support shifting .2% of public funds currently used for military preparedness and military interventions to carry out 1000 Community Visioning Initiatives. Why does he believe this? Because it is clear to him—and he believes it would be clear to most other people, if they were asked—that such a shift would be a transition from patterns of investment which in only limited ways represent solutions to the challenges discussed in this paper to patterns of investment which in many ways represent solutions to these challenges. It is also clear to this writer that such a shift in what people consider “valuable and important” would result in an exponential increase in opportunities to provide real assistance to fellow human beings. And it is clear that similar shifts from patterns of investment associated with greed, corruption, and overindulgence could be achieved so that time, energy, and money could be rechanneled towards more solution-oriented activity.
If many readers of this post were to be in agreement with this writer that the 10 difficult challenges (cited in another post in this section "A List of 10 Critical Challenges Ahead") were all critical challenges, and that all of us have important responsibilities associated with resolving these challenges in the months and years ahead—such shifts and transitions could be carried out. The IPCR Initiative is convinced that these shifts and transitions will eventually and inevitably happen. So The IPCR Initiative has been developing documents and resources which are relevant and practical for accomplishing those shifts and transitions.